Bitcoin (BTC) has started a new week, month, and quarter on a bullish note, surging past the $28,000 mark. The largest cryptocurrency had a mixed price action in September, leading market participants to anticipate a potentially volatile monthly close. However, the bulls took the upper hand, resulting in Bitcoin’s best weekly close since mid-August. As October has historically been a month of tangible price gains for BTC, there is excitement brewing over what might happen in the coming weeks.
Despite the positive price action, Bitcoin fundamentals have not yet aligned with the spike in spot price. Mining difficulty, which affects the supply of new Bitcoins, is expected to decrease in its next automated readjustment on October 2. This discrepancy between price and fundamentals raises questions about the sustainability of the current bullish move.
Bitcoin bulls are aware of the reversal risk and anticipate a potential comedown. Some market commentators have pointed out that there is significant liquidity in the order books at higher price levels, suggesting that greater volume would be needed to clear resistance levels. They believe that spot traders hold the key to determining the market direction.
The month of October, known as “Uptober,” has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin price gains. In recent years, BTC/USD has not finished October lower than it started. Market commentators have expressed optimism and compared the current market conditions to the bullish trend seen in 2021, when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in Q4.
While Bitcoin is experiencing positive price momentum, the same cannot be said for the United States macro data, which is expected to have a quiet phase in the beginning of October. The main event of the week, the potential government shutdown, has already been averted. Market participants will now turn their attention to Federal Reserve speakers for insight into future interest rate policy.
Despite the bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market, its network fundamentals, such as network difficulty and hash rate, are not necessarily reflecting the positive price action. Difficulty is expected to decrease at the next automated readjustment, even though it is currently at all-time highs. The relationship between price and hash rate remains a topic of debate, with some arguing that price follows hash rate, while others believe the opposite.
Overall, the Bitcoin market is starting October with strong momentum, leading to optimism among market participants for potential price gains in the coming weeks. However, the sustainability of this bullish move and the alignment of fundamentals with price action remain key factors to watch.
