Adam Back, the British cryptographer and CEO of Blockstream, has made a bold bet on Bitcoin. He has wagered $1 million that the cryptocurrency will break the $100,000 price point before its next halving, which is scheduled for March 2024. In a recent interview with Robert Breedlove, Back discussed the reasons behind his bet and the factors that he believes are affecting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The bet originated from a discussion on Twitter about the direction of Bitcoin’s price. Back pointed out several external factors that have influenced the cryptocurrency’s price, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, the Ukraine conflict, and challenges from decentralized finance (DeFi) and alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). He argued that these factors, often sensationalized by the mainstream media, have hindered Bitcoin’s expected growth.
Back noted that Bitcoin’s current price is below historical comparisons between its halving cycles, attributing this deviation to external factors. He expressed his belief that Bitcoin should be trading at a higher level based on its fundamentals. Traditionally, investors expect a price increase after each halving, which typically occurs six to nine months later. However, Back contended that Bitcoin should have already surpassed $100,000.
One of the reasons Back believes Bitcoin’s price has been affected by external factors is the deviation from its 200-week moving average. He pointed out that prior to 2021, Bitcoin had never fallen below this average, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is significant news and suggests that a variety of factors are influencing the price.
The bet came about when someone on Twitter suggested a wager on Bitcoin’s price. Back accepted the challenge, and the terms were set for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the halving or the end of March 2024, whichever comes first.
Back also discussed the behavior of Bitcoin miners, particularly during bull markets. He noted that miners tend to hold onto their coins instead of selling them to cover operating costs. This behavior, combined with the external factors he mentioned, can reduce the available supply of Bitcoin and further drive up its price.
It remains to be seen whether Back’s bet will come to fruition. However, his confidence in Bitcoin’s potential for growth is clear. With his reputation as a cryptographer and his involvement in the industry, Back’s wager has garnered attention. Many will be watching to see if Bitcoin can break the $100,000 mark before its next halving, and if Back will be the winner of the bet he has placed.
