Dangerous information for Microsoft as dangerous information confirmed on Home windows 11
An fascinating begin to 2025 for Microsoft, with one other setback after the shocking information that Google’s already dominant Chrome was growing more quickly than its own Edge browser as 2024 ended, regardless of the fixed nags and adverts throughout Home windows pushing customers in the wrong way.
The brand new information pointing within the unsuitable path is much more worrying, with December proving to be one other month when Home windows 10’s market share elevated as Home windows 11’s decreased, regardless of this being the yr the older model of the OS turns end-of-life, with solely a $30 paid one-year-only choice standing between 850 million customers and an alarming lack of safety updates.
All was going comparatively nicely till final October, with Home windows 11 posting its finest numbers but because it crossed the 35% line, with Home windows 10 dropping down in the direction of 60% for the primary time. These weren’t good numbers, removed from it, however with a yr to run (at that time) till the October 2025 deadline, it did appear that the tide may lastly be turning. However quick ahead two months and Home windows 10 has recovered round 3% as Home windows 11 has dropped again down in the direction of 34%. These reversed pattern strains are actually clear. The variety of Home windows customers in danger is at the moment over 65% and rising month-to-month.
This isn’t a coincidence. On October 31, Microsoft finally announced an extended support option for Home windows 10 customers, with an extra—closing—twelve months out there for a one-time $30 price. As I commented on the time, “this runs the danger of merely delaying the issue whereas undermining the safety crucial that Microsoft has been pushing for Home windows 11, that marriage of safe {hardware} and software program… Ultimately rely, estimates are that there stay 900 million PCs operating Home windows 10, of which solely 400 million aren’t technically able to the leap to Home windows 11.”
Desktop Home windows Model Market Share Worldwide (Jan – Dec 2024)
And so right here we’re—perhaps. Home windows 10 is clearly extra liked than its youthful sibling, and whether or not all of the holdouts pays the $30 or not, the sensation now’s the onerous line in October 2025 is just not fairly so onerous anymore. Might Microsoft u-turn nearer the time and preserve crucial updates for all for nothing—below the guise of conserving its huge ecosystem protected at a time of heightened threat. Once more—perhaps.
The state of affairs stays stark. Someplace between 850 and 900 million Home windows 10 customers are heading in the direction of finish of assist this yr. Microsoft has confirmed its hardware hurdle is not going away and is pestering Home windows 10 customers to make the swap. However as a substitute, tens of thousands and thousands are transferring within the unsuitable path. Ought to that proceed, we might discover ourselves with 70% or extra of the market operating a quasi-obsolete OS by the autumn, with lower than 30% having made the swap for a safe future.
And of these 850-900 million customers, there are round 400 million PCs that can’t improve. And whether or not this can be a can’t or gained’t situation, there may be nonetheless the small matter of a huge landfill problem coming when these PCs ultimately—we hope—do get modified out. Sure, the can has been kicked down the street, but it surely has not gone away. And the brand new threat is that the reversed pattern consists of customers that might have upgraded however haven’t, and who neglect to pay the $30 price. All of which suggests extra threat. A fast skim of current safety headlines tells you this can be a notably worrying time for this to be occurring.
All eyes on the subsequent 2-3 months stats to see if this can be a blip or one thing rather more worrying.
