AI was alleged to result in a supercycle of smartphone progress, not simply among iPhone users but in addition Android. Nevertheless it seems, that’s merely not a factor but—no less than based mostly on global 2024 smartphone trends. Gross sales are trending up, however under no circumstances for the explanations you would possibly anticipate.
No iPhone supercycle in sight, however smartphone shipments rebound anyhow for a shocking motive
This week the IDC (Worldwide Knowledge Company) released its forecast for international smartphone shipments in 2024.
Total, whole smartphone shipments are anticipated to develop 6.2% following a pair years of declines.
- iPhones are solely rising 0.4%, so no supercycle there
- Androids, in the meantime, are rising 7.6%
Why the optimistic pattern? Are AI or foldables accountable?
It seems, no, probably not.
Whereas GenAI continues to be a scorching subject and high precedence for a lot of distributors, it’s but to impression demand considerably and drive early upgrades.
Equally with foldables, IDC notes that they “proceed to seize headlines regardless of the low volumes out there.” And in Q3, “foldables declined by 7.4%, at the same time as many of the world’s outstanding distributors launched new fashions.”
So what’s the primary driver behind smartphones’ 2024 success? “Low finish units.”
Speedy Android progress of seven.6% year-over-year targeted in APeJC, Latin America, Center East and Africa and China, primarily in low finish units, is pivotal to the 6.2% progress this yr.
That’s proper. Large tech developments in generative AI and distinctive designs like foldables will not be behind the 2024 smartphone rebound.
As a substitute, it’s merely overdue upgrades and low finish units offering a much-needed market increase.
Might 2025 change that? Certain. IDC says it nonetheless expects AI and foldables to result in progress on the larger finish over the approaching years. However for now no less than, there’s no signal but of an enormous supercycle of upgrades due to AI.
What do you make of 2024’s smartphone traits? Is an iPhone supercycle coming? Tell us within the feedback.
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