In a recent analysis, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone has raised concerns about the potential trajectory of Bitcoin’s price. According to his analysis, Bitcoin risks declining to $10,000 by the end of the year as it continues to struggle with the $30,000 resistance level. This level has been seen as crucial for a sustained breakout in Bitcoin’s price, but McGlone believes the odds are against it.
One of the factors contributing to this potential decline is the negative liquidity in the Bitcoin ecosystem heading into the fourth quarter. This means that there is more selling pressure than buying pressure, which could impact Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, rising interest rates could also have an effect on the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin gained prominence in a zero interest-rate world, but as global rates continue to rise, it may experience a hangover.
The analysis also highlights the importance of Bitcoin in the broader financial market. Bloomberg Intelligence has drawn a correlation between the Fed fund futures and Bitcoin’s price, suggesting that Bitcoin needs to decline further before there can be a liquidity reversal in those funds. While the Federal Reserve may not care about Bitcoin, its 24/7-traded, leading indicator status could be gaining traction.
The fate of the broader crypto market is also being called into question. McGlone notes that cryptocurrencies might be leaning into a recession, pointing to the relation between the crypto and stock market. If the stock market were to experience a typical drawdown due to a recession, the crypto market could follow suit. This projection is reflected in the downward trajectory of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index and the Russell 2000 Index from their all-time highs in 2022.
Overall, the analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s price could decline further, with the broader crypto market potentially following suit. These concerns are based on factors such as negative liquidity, rising interest rates, and the relation between Bitcoin and the stock market. While projections like these are not certain, they do provide important insights into the potential future of Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole.
